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Who will win the Golden Boot in the World Cup 2018?

Football 8 May 2018

What is interesting about the Golden Boot is that the bookies favourites never really win it. This tournament’s favourites Messi, Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo were last World Cup favourites as well - yet only Neymar made it into the top three with 4 goals, earning him the not-so-coveted bronze boot.

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Previous Golden Boot winners
PlayerNationGoalsYear
James RodriguezColombia62014
Thoma MüllerGermany52010
Miroslav KloseGermany52006
RonaldoBrazil82002
Davor SukerCroatia61998
Oleg Salenko & Hristo StoichkovRussia & Bulgaria61994
Salvatore SchillaciItaly61990
Gary LinekerEngland61986
Paolo RossiItaly61982
Mario KempesArgentina61978
Gregorz LatoPoland71974
Gerd MüllerWest Germany101970

Top Scorer World Cup 2018 odds

Favourites for the Golden boot 2018

Neymar

Neymar’s first World Cup was in 2014. Neymar won the bronze boot during the tournament. He was forced off with a back injury against Colombia in the quarter-final and didn’t play in the infamous 7-1 semi-final defeat to Germany

Lionel Messi

The Argentinian maestro has been favourite for top scorer in the past two World Cups.

Messi actually first made his debut during the 2006 World Cup but only started one match and appeared as a substitute on two occasions. In 2010, although he was involved in the majority of Argentina’s goals Messi did not score.

In 2014 Messi was instrumental in guiding Argentina to the final, scoring 4 times and making one assist in seven games.

Timo Werner 

This will be the German striker’s first World Cup. At only 22-years-old, the RB Leipzig striker already has over 150 Bundesliga games under his belt. He won the Golden-boot during Germany’s successful 2017 Confederations Cup.

Cristiano Ronaldo 

Cristiano has enjoyed more success at the European Championships than at the World Cup.

During his first World Cup in 2006, Ronaldo scored only one goal which was a penalty against Iran in the group stages. Goals aside, Ronaldo had a decent tournament, reaching the semi-final after his infamous wind up of Rooney in the Quarter-finals.

In 2010 despite being man of the match in all of Portugal’s groups games against the Ivory Coast, North Korea and Brazil, he only managed one goal. Portugal were knocked out by one goal in an Iberian derby against Spain in the Round of 16.

In 2014, Ronaldo’s performances were hampered by injury. However, he still managed a last-minute winner against Ghana. Portugal went out in the group stage on goal difference.

Antoine Griezmann

The Frenchman has only played in one World Cup in 2014 but did not score. Of course, we all remember his performances in Euro 2016 in which he scored six goals and made two assists in seven games. It’s no doubt that his performances during that tournament have made him fourth favourite for this World Cup’s Golden Boot.

Gabriel Jesus 

This will be the Brazilian’s first World Cup. He currently has nine goals in 15 appearances for the Brazilian senior team.

Harry Kane 

This will be Harry Kane’s first World Cup. Kane will be best remembered during England’s disastrous Euro 2016 campaign for taking corner kicks, a decision that England’s then manager, Roy Hodgson, took considerable criticism for.

Romelu Lukaku 

It’s hard to believe that Lukaku is still only 24-years-old. Having moved to the Premier League in 2011 he now has over a hundred goals in the league. For Belgium he has an average of 0.5 goals a game. In his first World Cup in 2014, Lukaku scored two goals. He is currently Belgium’s all time top-scorer.

Sergio Aguero 

Aguero appeared at the 2010 World Cup and despite some impressive performances didn’t get on the scoresheet. In 2014, a goal-shy Argentina reached the final, losing 1-0 to Germany in extra-time. Aguero did not score in any of Argentina’s seven games.

Luis Suarez

A handball that stopped Ghana scoring and a bite on Chiellini is what Suarez will be best remembered for at the World Cup.

Suarez managed three goals in the 201o World Cup before he was suspended for Uruguay's semi-final. He returned for the third-place play-off but did not score.

In 2014, Suarez missed Uruguay's first game due to injury but returned in the second group game to score two in a 2-1 victory over England. In the final group game he bit Chiellini and was banned for the rest of the tournament.

How to bet on the Golden Boot

Now, with the Golden Boot a little bit of research and patience can go a long way.

First, look at the player’s goalscoring record and how they are used by their coach. Then, you should look at their group games. Here you have a helping hand in deciding who is most likely to pick up goals. It is in the group stages that most of the big teams (with the best strikers) will pick up goals against the weaker sides. For example, Kane or Lukaku against Panama. Last tournament’s top scorer picked up half of his total goals (3 out of 6) in the group stages.

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