Building a betting model
There are many different variants of these betting models depending on what your aim and the end goal is. Some of these are more profitable and some less so. By following this guide, you will get a clear idea of what a betting model entails and it will teach you the basic steps to create a betting model that will give you an edge in the odds market.
What is a betting model?
A betting model is a system based on impartial statistically focused reference points that help you find value in matches that others may not. In addition, this allows you to experience your emotions whilst watching sport and placing bets, without your feelings getting in the way of your rational decision making.
By building a profitable betting model, you will gain the optimal prerequisites for predicting the likelihood of different outcomes. A perfect betting model can judge the likelihood of an outcome better than both the betting companies’ analyses and the behaviour of the market. However, to build a perfect betting model, you need a lot of statistical data, knowledge and, as mentioned earlier, time. Bookmakers have many employees, that work daily with betting models but with the help of their large databases. This means that even if you are able to build a betting model with the objective of beating the betting companies model, you must be prepared to put aside a lot of mental energy. However, if you manage to create the perfect betting model, it will most certainly be worth the effort.
Six Steps to building a betting model
- Determine the market for your betting model
- Specify your statistics
- Gather your statistics
- Decide what your expectations of the betting model are
- Build the betting model
- Test and analyze your betting model
Watching sport and betting can make it hard to stay rational.
1. Determine the market for your betting model
This the first step in creating your betting model. To build a betting model, you must start by deciding what the betting model should be focused on. This can be, for example, that you want to build a betting model, that can help you predict the probability of the over and under market for the total number of goals in the Spanish league. The most important thing at this stage is to decide what your goal is with your betting model and what specifically you wish to specialize in. An overly broad betting model will require more work, which in turn means a smaller chance of succeeding. Specializing your betting model to the greatest extent you can, makes it easier to create a correct and accurate betting model.
Tip! One recommendation is that you focus your betting model on one league in order to make things as easy as possible. The broader the betting model, the more complex it will become. Another tip is to focus on a large market. You might think it sounds harder to have to compete in the largest market, and that is true; but if you should succeed in building a successful betting model, then the low limitations and betting restrictions from the betting companies will quickly become a problem if you are playing in smaller markets.
Examples of markets suitable for a betting model:
- Number of goals, over/under
- Exact final result
Betting on a larger market, such as the Premier League, can open up more potential betting opportunities
2. Specify your statistics
Step two is where you chose your statistics that you base your betting model on.
Important things to think about here are:
- How far back in time will you statistics be based on? How your last few games went will play a larger role when analyzing the statistics compared with the previous season.
- You should decide whether you are going on the statistics from a teams matches or only league matches.
- You should also consider how these statistics will be affected if your team will lose important players.
There are many aspects to consider when deciding what statistics the model should be based upon. It’s hard to say what is right or wrong, the important thing is to set clear guidelines that can give you a precise and well-functioning betting model.
3. Collecting Statistics
Step three is when you begin to collect all forms of statistics and data from your betting model. The betting model is built up with statistics, this is why this stage is crucial. It is better to collect too many statistics, than too little, as you will be able to scale down the volume of statistics at a later stage. Gathering statistics will take time, but it is probably the most important building block for a successful betting model.
You can decide to build your own statistics on matches, but be prepared that this will take a lot of effort. Fortunately, there are a number of great websites that will provide you with no end of statistics. Certain websites, can offer free statistics you can use, but others require payment for more detailed statistics. Depending on how advanced the betting model should be, you should customize your search for statistics according to your betting model.
4. Exceptions for using the betting model
After collecting all the necessary statistics it is important that you set clear rules for your betting model. There will be factors that will render your betting model meaningless in certain matches, so it is important to be clear when the betting model is useful or not. It can be factors that are hard to enter in the betting model as you cannot gather clear statistics on them.
This can, for example, be a betting model that shows that there is a value in betting on 2.5 goals in a game between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid at odds of 2.00. However, the high odds can depend on factors that don’t exist in your betting model. This can, for example, be due to the fact that Barcelona is missing their best striker for this match. This data you’ve submitted, that calculates Barcelona’s chances of scoring, is built on the assumption that they have their best possible starting eleven.
Examples of possible exceptions that you should evaluate for your betting model
- The absence of key players
- Weather conditions
- Intensive/tough match conditions that can wear out players
- A new manager for one of the teams
However much you plan ahead, betting and sports are unpredictable. If you have a long-term vision though unexpected events will play less of a role.
5. Building your betting model
Once you have decided on your betting model it will be time for you to build it. In order to this you will need experience with the following programs:
Our tip is that you begin with the simplest program, Excel. You don’t need to be a computer whizz to be able to build a model, but the more experience you have with handling data, the easier and faster it will be. If you have basic maths skills, and most importantly an understanding of probability theory, you will also have an advantage when it comes to building your betting model.
6. Test and analyze
The final step in completing your betting model is to test and analyze it.
At first, you can test your betting model against odds from matches that have already been played. After you have reviewed and analyzed the betting model against past results, you can begin to test it in real life. But, even now, you should still approach it with a cautious attitude. Try to look for potential weaknesses which need adjusting in the model and think about how long you need to take to test and review the variations in your model.
Your betting model, will probably never be 100% complete, and it will always need minor adjustments and fine tuning in order for you to keep up and create a cutting edge when playing against the market’s odds.