Usting statistics for betting
Betting companies always use statistics, in all forms, when they set the odds, often through their own databases which contain lots of different statistics. The effectiveness of using statistics really depends on what type of bet you are placing. Markets like the number of goals, the number of corners, the number of cards are examples of markets where many bettors will base their bets on statistics.
Knowledge of statistics is no guarantee that you’ll beat the betting companies in the long run, but it will definitely increase your chances of succeeding.
Regardless of how many statistics you have access to, you must understand how to use them in the odds market. Knowledge of statistics is no guarantee that you’ll beat the betting companies in the long run, but it will definitely increase your chances of succeeding.
Number of cards bets are often based on statistics
How to use statistics when betting?
Both professional bettors and people who enjoy it as a hobby can make use of statistics. Amateur bettors can use basic statistics, such as a team’s league position, form or previous matches. However, behind the basic statistics, lies a hidden, more advanced set of statistics that you can make use of. It can be the number of shots, shot conversion or expected goals. Perhaps the statistics of a team is actually better than what their league position suggests and it’s just a matter of time before they demonstrate this by winning matches. If you are very serious and trust statistics completely, then it might be a good idea to build your own betting model. A betting model which is based exclusively on statistics and built using programs such as Excel.
An example of statistical betting for total number of goals
Imagine you have thought about placing a bet on there to be more than 2.5 goals in a match between Tottenham and Liverpool. Tottenham’s statistics show that the teams home matches end with over 2.5 goals in 75% of matches. Liverpool has an average of over 2.5 goals in 47% of the team's away games. If you look at their previous encounters, you can see that 60% of the last 10 matches have ended with 2.5 goals or more. After you have completed your analysis, you can see that there is over 55% chance that the match will end with over 2.5 goals. This means that the betting company must offer odds of over 1.82 in order for you to find value in the game. 55% likelihood = 1.82 in odds. If you find lower odds you should avoid the bet. If you find higher odds then you should place a bet.
An example of statistical betting for total number of cards
Imagine for a match between Real Madrid and Barcelona, you are offered to bet on over/under 5.5 cards with the odds of 1.90 for both choices. Real Madrid average 1.8 cards per match and Barcelona average 2.1 yellow cards per match. This means that the teams average 3.9 yellow cards per game together. But there are more statistics to collect. If you look at the previous meetings between the teams, you see that the average is up at 5.9 yellow cards per match, which indicates that there will be over 5.5 cards in this match. Important statistics to gather is how prone the referee is to handing out yellow cards in matches. For this match, they will have a referee who issues an average of 5.2 yellow cards per match.
After you have taken all the statistics on board and analyzed them, you estimate that there is a 50% chance of there being over 5.5 yellow cards. With this analysis, you are in agreement with the betting company’s odds of 1.90 for over or under 5.5 cards and you can see that it is not worth betting on a 50% chance either way. 50% = 2.00 odds. This means that you must find odds of over 2.00 to be able to find value in your bet.
An example of statistical betting for corners
Arsenal is playing Crystal Palace and you have decided to bet on corners. The betting company is offering different types of corner related bets; you can, for example, bet on over/under, the exact number of total corners, which team will have most corners, which team will have the next or last corner.
Arsenal corner statistics at home: Average total of 11.5 corners Average of 6.9 offensive corners Average of 5.6 defensive corners
Crystal Palace corner statistics away from home: Average total of 11.7 corners Average of 5.3 offensive corners Average of 6.4 defensive corners
In addition to these statistics, you can even look at corner statistics from previous meetings. The statistics indicate that Arsenal has an advantage when it comes to corners. After you have looked at all the statistics and analyzed them in comparison with the betting company’s odds you can see that the betting company overestimate Arsenal’s corner opportunities. Instead, it may be a good alternative to bet on Crystal Palace to get 3.5 corners if this is a value in the odds the betting company offers.
Using statistics to bet on corners is becoming increasingly popular
Disadvantages with only relying on statistics
Using statistics before placing a bet will give you a good chance of succeeding and help reduce the advantage betting companies have over you. However, to only place your bets based on statistics can, in some instances, be a bad idea. Regardless of the sport, you will find more factors than historical statistics which will influence the outcome of a bet. Factors such as weather, injuries/muscle stretches or a tough match schedule - are not easy to find statistics on. Statistics are just one of many factors that you should have considered before placing a bet.
Another aspect to think about is how long back in time should you go? How important are previous games between the two teams really? The teams can, for example, have a different manager. Liverpool and Manchester United could be playing the Champions League final in a sweltering Athens - far away from the colder climates they usually play in - will that affect all the previous stats? These are just some examples of the limitations of just looking at sports betting statistically.