Euro 2024 Golden Boot - Shooting For Glory?

One of the biggest betting events of the sporting calendar takes place this Summer, as Euro 2024 begins in Germany on June 14th, with the hosts taking on Scotland in the opening contest.

Millions of pounds will be staked on a wide range of football markets, as bookmakers look to tempt new and ongoing players with a raft of Euro 2024 promotions.

Many of these will revolve around individual match betting or outright markets, however, I want to look at one of the more intriguing markets, the Golden Boot winner, as we look at how historical data can narrow down your potential choices when picking out a top scorer selection.

Now, it doesn’t take a genius to realise that a Golden Boot winner will have a major influence on a team’s performance at the Euros, but it may be a little more understated than you may think!

In the past eleven tournaments since the introduction of the group stage in 1980, only one Golden Boot winner has failed to reach the semi-final (Cristiano Ronaldo & Portugal), with four going all the way to lift the trophy, two missing out as runners-up and a further four reaching the semi-finals as indicated below.

So, with this key bit of knowledge under your belt, it would be easy to pick the star striker from one of the favourites and place your bets, but there is another way of narrowing down your field of prospects still further, good old league form!

Now, not every player can replicate their league form for the national team but when it comes to the Golden Boot winners, a vast majority of them have one thing in common, they have had a good season before the Summer tournament.

First things first, of the eleven players listed, there are a couple of outliers, with Marco Van Basten (1988) and Milan Baros (2004) both missing large chunks of the previous season through injury, but, if you remove those two players, of the remaining nine Golden Boot winners, eight of them scored at least 15 league goals the previous season, while seven of those scored at least 20 goals or more across all competitions.

And so, with all that done, we have a list of six players, who should be considered for the UEFA Euro 2024 Golden Boot based on the above criteria.

It is worth remembering that some bookmakers are paying five places on the Top Scorer market, making an each-way bet worthwhile for the larger priced players.