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One of the biggest betting events of the sporting calendar takes place this Summer, as Euro 2024 begins in Germany on June 14th, with the hosts taking on Scotland in the opening contest.
Millions of pounds will be staked on a wide range of football markets, as bookmakers look to tempt new and ongoing players with a raft of Euro 2024 promotions.
Many of these will revolve around individual match betting or outright markets, however, I want to look at one of the more intriguing markets, the Golden Boot winner, as we look at how historical data can narrow down your potential choices when picking out a top scorer selection.
The Golden Boot
Cristiano Ronaldo won the Euro 2020 Golden Boot
Since 1960, the top scorer in the European Championships has been awarded the Golden Boot to commemorate their achievements in front of goal.
The inaugural award was shared by five players in 1960, with the first lone winner being Dragan Dzajic of Yugoslavia in 1968,
Frenchman, Michel Platini holds the record for the most goals in a tournament, with 9 goals in 1984 and no player has managed to win the Golden Boot twice, with Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo going closest, having finished second in 2016 and then winning at Euro 2020.
A Golden Ticket To The Last Four?
Now, it doesn’t take a genius to realise that a Golden Boot winner will have a major influence on a team’s performance at the Euros, but it may be a little more understated than you may think!
In the past eleven tournaments since the introduction of the group stage in 1980, only one Golden Boot winner has failed to reach the semi-final (Cristiano Ronaldo & Portugal), with four going all the way to lift the trophy, two missing out as runners-up and a further four reaching the semi-finals as indicated below.
| Year | Player | Nationality | Goals | Round Reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | Klaus Allofs | Germany | 3 | Runner-Up |
| 1984 | Michel Platini | France | 9 | Winner |
| 1988 | Marco Van Basten | Holland | 5 | Winner |
| 1992 | Dennis Bergkamp* | Holland | 3 | Semi-Final |
| 1996 | Alan Shearer | England | 5 | Semi-Final |
| 2000 | Patrick Kluivert* | Holland | 5 | Semi-Final |
| 2004 | Milan Baros | Czechia | 5 | Semi-Final |
| 2008 | David Villa | Spain | 4 | Winner |
| 2012 | Fernando Torres | Spain | 3 | Winner |
| 2016 | Antoine Griezmann | France | 6 | Runner-up |
| 2020 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | 5 | Round Of 16 |
*denotes players who shared the Golden Boot title
League Form - The Ultimate Pointer?
So, with this key bit of knowledge under your belt, it would be easy to pick the star striker from one of the favourites and place your bets, but there is another way of narrowing down your field of prospects still further, good old league form!
Now, not every player can replicate their league form for the national team but when it comes to the Golden Boot winners, a vast majority of them have one thing in common, they have had a good season before the Summer tournament.
First things first, of the eleven players listed, there are a couple of outliers, with Marco Van Basten (1988) and Milan Baros (2004) both missing large chunks of the previous season through injury, but, if you remove those two players, of the remaining nine Golden Boot winners, eight of them scored at least 15 league goals the previous season, while seven of those scored at least 20 goals or more across all competitions.
| Year | Player | Club | League Goals (Apps) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | Klaus Allofs | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 16 (28) |
| 1984 | Michel Platini | Juventus | 20 (28) |
| 1988 | Marco Van Basten | AC Milan | 3 (11) |
| 1992 | Dennis Bergkamp | Ajax | 23 (30) |
| 1996 | Alan Shearer | Blackburn Rovers | 31 (35) |
| 2000 | Patrick Kluivert | Barcelona | 15 (26) |
| 2004 | Milan Baros | Liverpool | 1 (13) |
| 2008 | David Villa | Barcelona | 18 (28) |
| 2012 | Fernando Torres | Chelsea | 6 (32) |
| 2016 | Antoine Griezmann | Atletico Madrid | 22 (38) |
| 2020 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Juventus | 29 (33) |
To put this into context for Euro 2024, there are currently 32 players that have scored 15 league goals this season and are either eligible or have been selected for the national team squad at Euro 2024, as of 20th May, with this number reduced further when final squads need to be decided by 7th June.
Narrowing Down The Short List
After narrowing down the list of potential Golden Boot winners using historic European Championship data as a guide, there are still over 30+ players on the list, so how can we reduce that even further?
Michel Platini, the only midfielder to win the Golden Boot, scoring 9 goals for France in 1984
Firstly, we narrow down by position. Only one midfielder has won the Euro’s Golden Boot since 1980, with Michel Platini having that distinction in 1984, with forwards and strikers unsurprisingly taking the spoils, this would mean we remove the likes of Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden from the list (as controversial as that may be)
We then take a look at the latest Euro 2024 betting odds. As stated previously, the Golden Boot winner comes from a side who have reached a semi-final, so realistically they are likely to play for one of the more fancied teams in the market, although both Denmark (1992) and Greece (2004) do make arguments against that. However, in this instance, I am going to include the top 10 national sides in the outright betting.
A great striker, but Ollie Watkins may not get much play time at Euro 2024
And finally, we have to look at who is most likely to start for their respective nation throughout the tournament. A prime example is Ollie Watkins, who is exceptionally prolific for Aston Villa and is on the list but will be behind Harry Kane in the pecking order when it comes to playing up front for England, while Paulinho is also unlikely to get a start ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal in a similar vein.
The Supreme Six (Possibly!)
And so, with all that done, we have a list of six players, who should be considered for the UEFA Euro 2024 Golden Boot based on the above criteria.
It is worth remembering that some bookmakers are paying five places on the Top Scorer market, making an each-way bet worthwhile for the larger priced players.
| Player | Nation | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | France | 11/2 |
| Harry Kane | England | 6/1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | 13/1 |
| Antoine Griezmann | France | 25/1 |
| Brian Brobbey | Holland | 66/1 |
| Andrej Kramaric | Croatia | 150/1 |
The European Championship 2024 is over. You can check, for reference only, the latest Euro 2024 betting odds, for the outright tournament winner and Golden Boot, plus individual ...
